ZPGJames

ENERGY AND POPULATION

ZPGJames.com Home Page

Since 9/29/2003

Periodic updates:

1. The G20 countries can change the world: G20.htm

2. US Stock Indexes, Crashes and Recoveries: INDEXES.htm

3. US S&P 500 Index, 1980 to Present: SP500.htm

4. US Income and Expenses:

a. Eight-year transition: US_Income_linear.htm and US_Income_linear.xls

b. Congress needs to make a plan to balance the budget and stick with it.

c. Estimated expenses per person in 2100 in 2010 dollars: US_2100.htm

and US_2100.xls

5. US Price of Oil: Oil.htm

6. US Price of Electricity: electricity_EIA.htm

7. US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm

8. Migration from poor to rich countries: CIA migration.htm, G20.htm, and

Dev_Index.htm See items 19 and Policy Suggestions below.

9. How Congress can make good decisions: Decisions.htm

10. Replace Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid with one limited pool per person:

US_Benefit_Pool.htm and US_Benefit_Pool.xls

11. Jobs, education, birth control, and automation: US_jobs.htm

12. China data inspired by reading: Why the West Rules-For Now by Ian Morris (2010):

UN_Compare.htm and China_model.htm Compare to:US_model.htm

Equal GDP’s per capita would eliminate most trade problems.

GDP’s could be higher, if we can generate more non-fossil fuel energy.

Coal reserves and use by China and the US: coal.htm

13. Energy from Food and Development of Countries: food_energy.htm

14. Population reductions versus non-fossil fuel energy needed by 2100:

Cultural_Options.htm and Cultural_Options.xls

I hope these analyses and comments lead to more realistic evaluations of human population growth, energy limitations, and space exploration so future generations can enjoy a productive life on Earth.

James M. Pickett, September 25, 2007.

Definition of Overpopulation:

I define overpopulation to mean having a less than desirable GDP/capita and being willing to reduce the birth rate to help increase the GDP/capita even if the population is stable.

This means that a country may need to decrease its population to raise its GDP/capita. If a country is trying to expand into another country (by force or by migration) or is so unstable that it is endangering others, then countries may act to defend themselves. Stabilizing overpopulated countries may require pressure from more developed countries. For example, foreign aid might be granted only if the birth rate is significantly reduced. Access to welfare, including food, is not a right, it is a privilege earned by responsible reproduction and hard work.

Major results and conclusions:

1. A brief introduction: Summary.htm

2. World population growth from 1 AD to 2600 and Options: World Population Growth.htm

3. Birth rates are decreasing, but not fast enough: UN Birth rates.htm

4. GDP/capita increases rapidly as birth rates decrease: CIA births.htm

5. A high GDP/capita requires a lot of energy/capita: CIA energy.htm

6. Market incentives are important: CIA cultures.htm, CIA gini.htm, CIA ages.htm

7. What would heaven on Earth look like? Heaven.htm, Cultural_Options.htm, Modelout.htm

8. Limits of Democracy: Limits of Demo.htm

9. Population model output: African.htm, African 4.htm, Buddhist.htm, Christian.htm,

Hindu.htm, Latin Am.htm, Muslim.htm, Muslim2.htm, Orthodox.htm, USA.htm,

EU27.htm, World.htm, World2.htm

10. Summary of Options for Africa: Africa_Options.htm

11. To download a copy of my population model, open and save: ZPGModel.xls

12. Four good indexes of development for the G20, 61 populous countries, and the USA:

a. Summary data and development index for the G20: G20.htm and G20.xls

b. Using Purchasing Power Parity GDP’s: Dev_Index.htm and Dev_Index.xls

c. Using Exchange Rate GDP’s: Dev_Index2.htm and Dev_Index2.xls

d. For the states in the USA: US_States.htm and US_States.xls

e. Regression summary for Development Index data: Index_stats.htm

13. An Energy Plan for the World: World_Energy_Plan.htm and World_Energy_Plan.xls

14. An Energy Plan for the US: US_Energy_Plan.htm and US_Energy_Plan.xls

15. Projected prices:

a. Price of oil: Oil.htm

b. Price of electricity: electricity_EIA.htm

16. Energy reserves and options:

a. Fossil Fuel Reserves by Country: Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm

b. Data for ten large oil fields and future oil: Oil_Fields.htm

c. US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm

d. Long term energy options: photosynthesis.htm

17. Space, The Final Frontier? Space.htm

18. A climate proposal: Rich countries (high GDP/capita and low birth rates) agree to develop and help finance technologies to begin reducing global warming by 2050. Rich and poor countries (low GDP/capita and high birth rates) agree to reduce birth rates to two per female or less by 2050. If successful, we would stop global warming and be approaching a stable human population by 2050. Middle income, low birth rate countries (e.g. China and Russia) could aid these important negotiations. Such projects should be funded as a percent of GDP: Climate.htm and Climate.xls

19. Should rich countries increase their birth rates?

a. Population densities are already high per unit of arable land: CIA Land.htm

b. Food energy is a small percentage of total energy used: food_energy.htm

c. The ratio (workers/dependents) is higher than in most poor countries: CIA ages.htm

d. Children are expensive: CIA female.htm

e. Energy (and water) are going to cost more: Oil.htm

f. Economists tend to favor the wealthy and cheaper labor. See item 4 at: Population.htm

g. The answer is: No! But migration should be regulated: CIA migration.htm

Policy suggestions:

Bipartisan Study Commissions, Email.jpg

Immigration into the US.htm

Responsible reproduction.htm