High birth rates are more likely to lead to poverty than to power.
Businesses tend to prefer high birth rates to get cheap labor.
Cheap labor implies reduced purchasing power for most.
We also need food, fresh water, and energy sources.
HELP BALANCE ENERGY USE AND POPULATION TO RAISE, OR MAINTAIN, GDP PER CAPITA.
History should be based on data, not political and economic noise.
To increase your income, get a useful education and have no more than two children.
The real game is to survive on Earth, not in space!
ZPGJames.com Home Page
Primary data sources: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html,
It would be interesting to see what network analysis software does with this type of data:
Such analyses would be much simpler than for the human brain, 20 nodes versus hundreds or thousands.
Network mapping software could also reduce economic and political bias and conflict.
An objective, quantitative analysis of the G20 could be very useful in the
Ukraine – Russia conflict.
Our most important space program: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_object
Be sure to look at the last sections of the above article!
Maintaining human life on Earth implies maintaining a balanced atmosphere!
Maintaining a balanced atmosphere depends upon countries cooperating!
How do we make the G20 (75% of world GDP) work together?
The costs of not working together could eliminate many species, including humans.
Human population growth is our biggest problem.
The Economist 2/22/14 p51 and The Economist 6/21/14 p59
Science News, 23 August 2014, p32
Rana Foroohar, Time, 22 Sep 2014, p. 26, The Artful Dodgers:
US Corporate share of US tax revenue: 1952 = 33%, 2014 =10.5%, after tax profits = $1.8 trillion!
Earth-like planets: Space_planets.htm
The rate of growth in GDP per capita is declining in the US and the World: UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm
Revised using OECD data online 8/8/12: USA data as of July 4, 2012: USA_CIA_Data_070412.htm
Revised: Income in the US is highly concentrated compared to Europe and reduces productivity: Income_Distribution.htm
New: The US will get little sympathy, but a lot of competition. GDP/capita and growth rates: UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm
1. The G20 countries can change the world: G20.htm
2. US Stock Indexes, Crashes and Recoveries: INDEXES.htm
3. US S&P 500 Index, 1980 to Present: SP500.htm
4. US Income and Expenses:
b. Congress needs to make a plan to balance the budget and stick with it.
c. Estimated current and future tax expenses per person in 2010 dollars
d. Effects of energy and health costs 2007 vs. 2020: Energy_Health.htm
e. Government spending in the US versus other major countries from
The Economist, 3/31/12, page 31: 201208.png
f. US GDP summary for 2009 to 2011: BEA_1.1.5.htm
5. US Price of Oil: Oil.htm
6. US Price of Electricity: electricity_EIA.htm
7. US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm
Dev_Index.htm See items 19 and Policy Suggestions below.
9. How Congress can make good decisions: Decisions.htm
10. Replace Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid with one limited pool per person:
11. Jobs, education, birth control, and automation: US_jobs.htm
12. China data inspired by reading: Why the West Rules-For Now by Ian Morris (2010):
b. Equal GDP’s per capita would eliminate most trade problems.
c. GDP’s could be higher, if we can generate more non-fossil fuel energy.
d. Coal reserves and use by China and the US: coal.htm
e. The US is the paranoid party: The Economist, 4/7/11, page 28: 201210.png
13. Energy from Food and Development of Countries: food_energy.htm
14. Population reductions versus non-fossil fuel energy needed by 2100:
15. Timeline of non-political human history: Timeline.htm
I hope these analyses and comments lead to more realistic evaluations of human population growth, energy limitations, and space exploration so future generations can enjoy a productive life on Earth.
James M. Pickett, September 25, 2007.
Definition of Overpopulation:
I define overpopulation to mean having a less than desirable GDP/capita and being willing to reduce the birth rate to help increase the GDP/capita even if the population is stable.
This means that a country may need to decrease its population to raise its GDP/capita. If a country is trying to expand into another country (by force or by migration) or is so unstable that it is endangering others, then countries may act to defend themselves. Stabilizing overpopulated countries may require pressure from more developed countries. For example, foreign aid might be granted only if the birth rate is significantly reduced. Access to welfare, including food, is not a right, it is a privilege earned by responsible reproduction and hard work.
Major results and conclusions:
1. A brief introduction: Summary.htm
2. World population growth from 1 AD to 2600 and Options: World Population Growth.htm
3. Birth rates are decreasing, but not fast enough: UN Birth rates.htm
4. GDP/capita increases rapidly as birth rates decrease: CIA births.htm
5. A high GDP/capita requires a lot of energy/capita: CIA energy.htm
8. Limits of Democracy: Limits of Demo.htm
10. Summary of Options for Africa: Africa_Options.htm
11. To download a copy of my population model, open and save: ZPGModel.xls
12. Six good indexes of development:
f. For 29 countries with populations less than 15 million: Small_Countries.htm
g. Regression summary for Development Index data: Index_stats.htm
15. Projected prices:
a. Price of oil: Oil.htm
b. Price of electricity: electricity_EIA.htm
16. Energy reserves and options:
a. Fossil Fuel Reserves by Country: Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm
b. Data for ten large oil fields and future oil: Oil_Fields.htm
c. US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm
d. Long term energy options: photosynthesis.htm
17. Space, The Final Frontier? Space.htm
18. A climate proposal: Rich countries (high GDP/capita and low birth rates) agree to develop and help finance technologies to begin reducing global warming by 2050. Rich and poor countries (low GDP/capita and high birth rates) agree to reduce birth rates to two per female or less by 2050. If successful, we would stop global warming and be approaching a stable human population by 2050. Middle income, low birth rate countries (e.g. China and Russia) could aid these important negotiations. Such projects should be funded as a percent of GDP: Climate.htm and Climate.xls
19. Should rich countries increase their birth rates?
a. Population densities are already high per unit of arable land: CIA Land.htm
b. Food energy is a small percentage of total energy used: food_energy.htm
c. The ratio (workers/dependents) is higher than in most poor countries: CIA ages.htm
d. Children are expensive: CIA female.htm
e. Energy (and water) are going to cost more: Oil.htm
f. Economists tend to favor the wealthy and cheaper labor. See item 4 at: Population.htm
g. The answer is: No! But migration should be regulated: CIA migration.htm
Human Population Growth – history, issues, and data sets: Population.htm
UN Data: a. Birth rates and rates of decrease
US Data: Balancing the US Economy
Supplemental Data and Comments: