Data for major cultures CIA cultures.htm, UN Birth Rates and Rates of Decrease

Balancing the US Economy, Income_Distribution.htm, oil.htm, World_religions.htm, and

High birth rates are more likely to lead to poverty than to power.

Businesses tend to prefer high birth rates to get cheap labor.

Cheap labor implies reduced purchasing power for most.

We also need food, fresh water, and energy sources.



History should be based on data, not political and economic noise.

To increase your income, get a useful education and have no more than two children.

The real game is to survive on Earth, not in space!

Colleges: Colleges_2015.htm and Colleges_2015.xlsx

College cost increases: College_Cost.htm and College_Cost.xlsx Home Page

Since 9/29/2003


Primary data sources:,

My selections: CIA_Data.htm, and CIA_Data.xls

Also: US (USstats.htm, and USstats.xls), UN and OECD data online.

It would be interesting to see what network analysis software does with this type of data:

Try G20: G20.htm and G20.xls!

Data as of 2012:

Such analyses would be much simpler than for the human brain, 20 nodes versus hundreds or thousands.

Network mapping software could also reduce economic and political bias and conflict.

An objective, quantitative analysis of the G20 could be very useful in the

Ukraine – Russia conflict.

See: Optimum_Complexity.htm; Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm; Minimal Model.htm; World_Energy_2013.htm

Our most important space program:

Be sure to look at the last sections of the above article!

Maintaining human life on Earth implies maintaining a balanced atmosphere!

Maintaining a balanced atmosphere depends upon countries cooperating!

How do we make the G20 (75% of world GDP) work together?

The costs of not working together could eliminate many species, including humans.


Human population growth is our biggest problem.

The Economist 2/22/14 p51 and The Economist 6/21/14 p59


Science News, 23 August 2014, p32



Thomas Piketty (2014) Capital in the Twenty-First Century: 201401.jpg and 201402.jpg

Rana Foroohar, Time, 22 Sep 2014, p. 26, The Artful Dodgers:

US Corporate share of US tax revenue: 1952 = 33%, 2014 =10.5%, after tax profits = $1.8 trillion!


Earth-like planets: Space_planets.htm


          Recent Boom-Bust cycles: SP500.htm and SP500.xlsx  including log plots and: Stock_Crashes.htm


          Revised 11/5/14: Balancing the US Federal budget: US_Income_linear.htm and US_Income_linear.xls a look at Ryan’s idea

                               Including a cost-effective benefit model: US_Benefit_Pool.htm and US_Benefit_Pool.xls; and

                               The rate of growth in GDP per capita is declining in the US and the World: UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm

                               Illinois and Texas budgets: Illinois_and_Texas_Graphs.htm and Illinois_and_Texas_Graphs.xlsx

                               US States: GDP per Capita and Birth Rates: US_states_2014.htm and US_states_2014.xlsx


Revised using OECD data online 8/8/12: USA data as of July 4, 2012: USA_CIA_Data_070412.htm


          Revised: Income in the US is highly concentrated compared to Europe and reduces productivity: Income_Distribution.htm

                     and Income_Distribution.xlsx   Also: US Household Income Income_Households_US.htm


          New: The US will get little sympathy, but a lot of competition. GDP/capita and growth rates: UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm

                     and UN_China_Germany_Growth.htm


          New: Graphics of  energy options: US_Energy_Plan.htm, US_Energy_Supply_EIA_2012.htm, 

                               US_Alternative_Energy.htm, US_Alternative_Energy.xls (revised, 6/7/13),

                               World_Energy_Plan.htm, Dynamics.htm                              


          Periodic updates:

1.    The G20 countries can change the world: G20.htm

2.    US Stock Indexes, Crashes and Recoveries: INDEXES.htm

3.    US S&P 500 Index, 1980 to Present: SP500.htm

4.    US Income and Expenses:

a. Eight-year transition: US_Income_linear.htm and US_Income_linear.xls

b. Congress needs to make a plan to balance the budget and stick with it.

c. Estimated current and future tax expenses per person in 2010 dollars

          and federal and state funding: US_2100.htm and US_2100.xls

d. Effects of energy and health costs 2007 vs. 2020: Energy_Health.htm

            e. Government spending in the US versus other major countries from

    The Economist, 3/31/12, page 31: 201208.png

f. US GDP summary for 2009 to 2011: BEA_1.1.5.htm


5.    US Price of Oil: Oil.htm

6.    US Price of Electricity: electricity_EIA.htm

7.    US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm

8.  Migration from poor to rich countries: CIA migration.htm, G20.htm, and

Dev_Index.htm See items 19 and Policy Suggestions below.

9.  How Congress can make good decisions: Decisions.htm

10. Replace Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid with one limited pool per person:

US_Benefit_Pool.htm and US_Benefit_Pool.xls

          11. Jobs, education, birth control, and automation: US_jobs.htm

          12. China data inspired by reading: Why the West Rules-For Now by Ian Morris (2010):

                     a. UN_Compare.htm and China_model.htm  Compare to:US_model.htm

                     b. Equal GDP’s per capita would eliminate most trade problems.

                     c. GDP’s could be higher, if we can generate more non-fossil fuel energy.

                     d. Coal reserves and use by China and the US: coal.htm

                     e. The US is the paranoid party: The Economist, 4/7/11, page 28: 201210.png


          13. Energy from Food and Development of Countries: food_energy.htm

          14. Population reductions versus non-fossil fuel energy needed by 2100:

                     Cultural_Options.htm and Cultural_Options.xls

          15. Timeline of non-political human history: Timeline.htm



I hope these analyses and comments lead to more realistic evaluations of human population growth, energy limitations, and space exploration so future generations can enjoy a productive life on Earth.

James M. Pickett, September 25, 2007.


Definition of Overpopulation:

I define overpopulation to mean having a less than desirable GDP/capita and being willing to reduce the birth rate to help increase the GDP/capita even if the population is stable.


This means that a country may need to decrease its population to raise its GDP/capita.  If a country is trying to expand into another country (by force or by migration) or is so unstable that it is endangering others, then countries may act to defend themselves.  Stabilizing overpopulated countries may require pressure from more developed countries.  For example, foreign aid might be granted only if the birth rate is significantly reduced.  Access to welfare, including food, is not a right, it is a privilege earned by responsible reproduction and hard work.


Major results and conclusions:

          1. A brief introduction: Summary.htm

          2. World population growth from 1 AD to 2600 and Options: World Population Growth.htm

          3. Birth rates are decreasing, but not fast enough: UN Birth rates.htm

          4. GDP/capita increases rapidly as birth rates decrease: CIA births.htm

          5. A high GDP/capita requires a lot of energy/capita: CIA energy.htm

          6. Market incentives are important: CIA cultures.htm, CIA gini.htm, CIA ages.htm

          7. What would heaven on Earth look like? Heaven.htm, Cultural_Options.htm, Modelout.htm

          8. Limits of Democracy: Limits of Demo.htm

          9. Population model output: African.htm, African 4.htm, Buddhist.htm, Christian.htm,

                     Hindu.htm, Latin Am.htm, Muslim.htm, Muslim2.htm, Orthodox.htm, USA.htm,

                               EU27.htm, World.htm, World2.htm

          10. Summary of Options for Africa: Africa_Options.htm

          11. To download a copy of my population model, open and save: ZPGModel.xls

12. Six good indexes of development:

                     a. Summary data and development index for the G20: G20.htm and G20.xls

                     b. Using Purchasing Power Parity GDP’s: Dev_Index.htm and Dev_Index.xls

                     c. Using Exchange Rate GDP’s: Dev_Index2.htm and Dev_Index2.xls

                     d. For the states in the USA2010: US_States.htm and US_States.xls

                     e. For the states in the USA2014: US_states_2014.htm and US_states_2014.xlsx

          f. For 29 countries with populations less than 15 million: Small_Countries.htm

                     g. Regression summary for Development Index data: Index_stats.htm


          13. An Energy Plan for the World: World_Energy_Plan.htm and World_Energy_Plan.xls

          14. An Energy Plan for the US: US_Energy_Plan.htm and US_Energy_Plan.xls

          15. Projected prices:

a. Price of oil: Oil.htm

b. Price of electricity: electricity_EIA.htm


          16. Energy reserves and options:

                     a. Fossil Fuel Reserves by Country: Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm

b. Data for ten large oil fields and future oil: Oil_Fields.htm

c. US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm

d. Long term energy options: photosynthesis.htm


          17. Space, The Final Frontier? Space.htm

          18. A climate proposal: Rich countries (high GDP/capita and low birth rates) agree to develop and help finance technologies to begin reducing global warming by 2050. Rich and poor countries (low GDP/capita and high birth rates) agree to reduce birth rates to two per female or less by 2050.  If successful, we would stop global warming and be approaching a stable human population by 2050. Middle income, low birth rate countries (e.g. China and Russia) could aid these important negotiations. Such projects should be funded as a percent of GDP: Climate.htm and Climate.xls


          19. Should rich countries increase their birth rates?

                     a. Population densities are already high per unit of arable land: CIA Land.htm

                     b. Food energy is a small percentage of total energy used: food_energy.htm

                     c. The ratio (workers/dependents) is higher than in most poor countries: CIA ages.htm

                     d. Children are expensive: CIA female.htm

                     e. Energy (and water) are going to cost more: Oil.htm

                     f. Economists tend to favor the wealthy and cheaper labor. See item 4 at: Population.htm

                     g. The answer is: No! But migration should be regulated: CIA migration.htm



Policy suggestions:

          Bipartisan Study Commissions, Email.jpg

          Immigration into the US.htm

          Responsible reproduction.htm

          Foreign Aid and Oligarchies.htm


Human Population Growth – history, issues, and data sets: Population.htm


UN Data:      a. Birth rates and rates of decrease

                     b. Comments on Decreasing Birth Rates

                     c. UN Data on Death Rates and Median Ages

                    d. World Population by Area, 1950-2050


CIA Data:     Births/woman account for 40% of variance in GDP/capita.

                     Energy from Food by Country

                     GDP vs. energy and per capita

                     GDP/capita vs. births/1000

                     GDP/capita vs. Gini Income Index

                     Using Food as a Lever to Reduce Birth Rates

                     Should rich countries increase their birth rates?

                     Sorted by Culture or Religion

                     Sorted by GDP/capita

                     Sorted by migrants per year

                     US, China, Mexico, and the World

                     EU27 Energy, Pop/Arable Sq Km, and Median Age Data


                     Nine Key Variables per Person from CIA_Data


US Data:      Balancing the US Economy

                     Energy efficiency is Increasing

                     Energy used by sector and fuel

                     US_Energy_Plan.htm and US_Energy_Plan.xls

                     National Debt, 1945 to Present

                     Population and Racial Groups, 2000 - 2003

                     S&P 500 Index, 1980 to Present

                     Single-Mother Families and Ethnicity

                     Stock Indexes, Crashes and Recoveries



Supplemental Data and Comments:

                     A Brief History of Islam and the West

                     Is Space the Final Frontier?

                     Population and Arable Land on Earth

                     Is Farming Possible on our Moon, Mars, or Venus?

                     Solar energy, photosynthesis, and synfuels

                     Suggested Readings  

                     Timeline of Non-Political History

                     US War Casualties 1775 to date

                     Fossil Fuel Reserves by Country

                     Lifetime of World Oil Reserves

                     World Energy Consumption 1980 to Date

                     World Food