Earth_at_Night

Data for major cultures CIA cultures.htm, UN Birth Rates and Rates of Decrease,

Balancing the US Economy, Income_Distribution.htm, oil.htm, World_religions.htm,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient, GDP and Population.htm, GDP and Population.xlsx

High birth rates are more likely to lead to poverty than to power.

Businesses tend to prefer high birth rates to get cheap labor.

Cheap labor implies reduced purchasing power for most.

We also need food, fresh water, and energy sources.

 

HELP BALANCE ENERGY USE AND POPULATION TO RAISE, OR MAINTAIN, GDP PER CAPITA.

History should be based on data, not political and economic noise.

To increase your income, get a useful education and have no more than two children.

The real game is to survive on Earth, not in space!

Colleges: Colleges_2015.htm and Colleges_2015.xlsx

College cost increases: College_Cost.htm and College_Cost.xlsx

 

ZPGJames.com Home Page

Since 9/29/2003

 

Primary data sources: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html,

My selections: CIA_Data.htm, and CIA_Data.xls

Also: US (USstats.htm, and USstats.xls), UN and OECD data online.

It would be interesting to see what network analysis software does with this type of data:

Try G20: G20.htm and G20.xls!

Data as of 2012: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-20_major_economies#Member_countries_data

Such analyses would be much simpler than for the human brain, 20 nodes versus hundreds or thousands.

Network mapping software could also reduce economic and political bias and conflict.

An objective, quantitative analysis of the G20 could be very useful in the

Ukraine – Russia conflict.

See: Optimum_Complexity.htm; Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm; Minimal Model.htm; World_Energy_2013.htm

Our most important space program: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_object

Be sure to look at the last sections of the above article!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona_meteor_crater

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Araguainha_crater

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_extinction

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_ages

Maintaining human life on Earth implies maintaining a balanced atmosphere!

Maintaining a balanced atmosphere depends upon countries cooperating!

How do we make the G20 (75% of world GDP) work together?

The costs of not working together could eliminate many species, including humans.

 

Human population growth is our biggest problem.

The Economist 2/22/14 p51 and The Economist 6/21/14 p59

 

Science News, 23 August 2014, p32

 

 

Thomas Piketty (2014) Capital in the Twenty-First Century: 201401.jpg and 201402.jpg

Rana Foroohar, Time, 22 Sep 2014, p. 26, The Artful Dodgers:

US Corporate share of US tax revenue: 1952 = 33%, 2014 =10.5%, after tax profits = $1.8 trillion!

 

Earth-like planets: Space_planets.htm

 

            Recent Boom-Bust cycles: SP500.htm and SP500.xlsx  including log plots and: Stock_Crashes.htm

 

            Revised 11/5/14: Balancing the US Federal budget: US_Income_linear.htm and US_Income_linear.xls a look at Ryan’s idea

                                    Including a cost-effective benefit model: US_Benefit_Pool.htm and US_Benefit_Pool.xls; and

                                    The rate of growth in GDP per capita is declining in the US and the World: UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm

                                    Illinois and Texas budgets: Illinois_and_Texas_Graphs.htm and Illinois_and_Texas_Graphs.xlsx

                                    US States: GDP per Capita and Birth Rates: US_states_2014.htm and US_states_2014.xlsx

                                               

Revised using OECD data online 8/8/12: USA data as of July 4, 2012: USA_CIA_Data_070412.htm

 

            Revised: Income in the US is highly concentrated compared to Europe and reduces productivity: Income_Distribution.htm

                        and Income_Distribution.xlsx   Also: US Household Income Income_Households_US.htm

 

            New: The US will get little sympathy, but a lot of competition. GDP/capita and growth rates: UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm

                        and UN_China_Germany_Growth.htm

 

            New: Graphics of  energy options: US_Energy_Plan.htm, US_Energy_Supply_EIA_2012.htm, 

                                    US_Alternative_Energy.htm, US_Alternative_Energy.xls (revised, 6/7/13),

                                    World_Energy_Plan.htm, Dynamics.htm                               

 

            Periodic updates:

1.    The G20 countries can change the world: G20.htm

2.    US Stock Indexes, Crashes and Recoveries: INDEXES.htm

3.    US S&P 500 Index, 1980 to Present: SP500.htm

4.    US Income and Expenses:

a. Eight-year transition: US_Income_linear.htm and US_Income_linear.xls

b. Congress needs to make a plan to balance the budget and stick with it.

c. Estimated current and future tax expenses per person in 2010 dollars

            and federal and state funding: US_2100.htm and US_2100.xls

d. Effects of energy and health costs 2007 vs. 2020: Energy_Health.htm

            e. Government spending in the US versus other major countries from

    The Economist, 3/31/12, page 31: 201208.png

f. US GDP summary for 2009 to 2011: BEA_1.1.5.htm

 

5.    US Price of Oil: Oil.htm

6.    US Price of Electricity: electricity_EIA.htm

7.    US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm

8.  Migration from poor to rich countries: CIA migration.htm, G20.htm, and

Dev_Index.htm See items 19 and Policy Suggestions below.

9.  How Congress can make good decisions: Decisions.htm

10. Replace Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid with one limited pool per person:

US_Benefit_Pool.htm and US_Benefit_Pool.xls

            11. Jobs, education, birth control, and automation: US_jobs.htm

            12. China data inspired by reading: Why the West Rules-For Now by Ian Morris (2010):

                        a. UN_Compare.htm and China_model.htm  Compare to:US_model.htm

                        b. Equal GDP’s per capita would eliminate most trade problems.

                        c. GDP’s could be higher, if we can generate more non-fossil fuel energy.

                        d. Coal reserves and use by China and the US: coal.htm

                        e. The US is the paranoid party: The Economist, 4/7/11, page 28: 201210.png

 

            13. Energy from Food and Development of Countries: food_energy.htm

            14. Population reductions versus non-fossil fuel energy needed by 2100:

                        Cultural_Options.htm and Cultural_Options.xls

            15. Timeline of non-political human history: Timeline.htm

           

 

I hope these analyses and comments lead to more realistic evaluations of human population growth, energy limitations, and space exploration so future generations can enjoy a productive life on Earth.

James M. Pickett, September 25, 2007.

 

Definition of Overpopulation:

I define overpopulation to mean having a less than desirable GDP/capita and being willing to reduce the birth rate to help increase the GDP/capita even if the population is stable.

 

This means that a country may need to decrease its population to raise its GDP/capita.  If a country is trying to expand into another country (by force or by migration) or is so unstable that it is endangering others, then countries may act to defend themselves.  Stabilizing overpopulated countries may require pressure from more developed countries.  For example, foreign aid might be granted only if the birth rate is significantly reduced.  Access to welfare, including food, is not a right, it is a privilege earned by responsible reproduction and hard work.

 

Major results and conclusions:

            1. A brief introduction: Summary.htm

            2. World population growth from 1 AD to 2600 and Options: World Population Growth.htm

            3. Birth rates are decreasing, but not fast enough: UN Birth rates.htm

            4. GDP/capita increases rapidly as birth rates decrease: CIA births.htm

            5. A high GDP/capita requires a lot of energy/capita: CIA energy.htm

            6. Market incentives are important: CIA cultures.htm, CIA gini.htm, CIA ages.htm

            7. What would heaven on Earth look like? Heaven.htm, Cultural_Options.htm, Modelout.htm

            8. Limits of Democracy: Limits of Demo.htm

            9. Population model output: African.htm, African 4.htm, Buddhist.htm, Christian.htm,

                        Hindu.htm, Latin Am.htm, Muslim.htm, Muslim2.htm, Orthodox.htm, USA.htm,

                                    EU27.htm, World.htm, World2.htm

            10. Summary of Options for Africa: Africa_Options.htm

            11. To download a copy of my population model, open and save: ZPGModel.xls

12. Six good indexes of development:

                        a. Summary data and development index for the G20: G20.htm and G20.xls

                        b. Using Purchasing Power Parity GDP’s: Dev_Index.htm and Dev_Index.xls

                        c. Using Exchange Rate GDP’s: Dev_Index2.htm and Dev_Index2.xls

                        d. For the states in the USA2010: US_States.htm and US_States.xls

                        e. For the states in the USA2014: US_states_2014.htm and US_states_2014.xlsx

            f. For 29 countries with populations less than 15 million: Small_Countries.htm

                        g. Regression summary for Development Index data: Index_stats.htm

 

            13. An Energy Plan for the World: World_Energy_Plan.htm and World_Energy_Plan.xls

            14. An Energy Plan for the US: US_Energy_Plan.htm and US_Energy_Plan.xls

            15. Projected prices:

a. Price of oil: Oil.htm

b. Price of electricity: electricity_EIA.htm

 

            16. Energy reserves and options:

                        a. Fossil Fuel Reserves by Country: Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm

b. Data for ten large oil fields and future oil: Oil_Fields.htm

c. US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm

d. Long term energy options: photosynthesis.htm

 

            17. Space, The Final Frontier? Space.htm

            18. A climate proposal: Rich countries (high GDP/capita and low birth rates) agree to develop and help finance technologies to begin reducing global warming by 2050. Rich and poor countries (low GDP/capita and high birth rates) agree to reduce birth rates to two per female or less by 2050.  If successful, we would stop global warming and be approaching a stable human population by 2050. Middle income, low birth rate countries (e.g. China and Russia) could aid these important negotiations. Such projects should be funded as a percent of GDP: Climate.htm and Climate.xls

           

            19. Should rich countries increase their birth rates?

                        a. Population densities are already high per unit of arable land: CIA Land.htm

                        b. Food energy is a small percentage of total energy used: food_energy.htm

                        c. The ratio (workers/dependents) is higher than in most poor countries: CIA ages.htm

                        d. Children are expensive: CIA female.htm

                        e. Energy (and water) are going to cost more: Oil.htm

                        f. Economists tend to favor the wealthy and cheaper labor. See item 4 at: Population.htm

                        g. The answer is: No! But migration should be regulated: CIA migration.htm

           

           

Policy suggestions:

            Bipartisan Study Commissions, Email.jpg

            Immigration into the US.htm

            Responsible reproduction.htm

            Foreign Aid and Oligarchies.htm

 

Human Population Growth – history, issues, and data sets: Population.htm

 

UN Data:       a. Birth rates and rates of decrease

                        b. Comments on Decreasing Birth Rates

                        c. UN Data on Death Rates and Median Ages

                        d. World Population by Area, 1950-2050

 

CIA Data:      Births/woman account for 40% of variance in GDP/capita.

                        Energy from Food by Country

                        GDP vs. energy and per capita

                        GDP/capita vs. births/1000

                        GDP/capita vs. Gini Income Index

                        Using Food as a Lever to Reduce Birth Rates

                        Should rich countries increase their birth rates?

                        Sorted by Culture or Religion

                        Sorted by GDP/capita

                        Sorted by migrants per year

                        US, China, Mexico, and the World

                        EU27 Energy, Pop/Arable Sq Km, and Median Age Data

                        CIA_Data.htm

                        Nine Key Variables per Person from CIA_Data

                       

US Data:       Balancing the US Economy

                        Energy efficiency is Increasing

                        Energy used by sector and fuel

                        US_Energy_Plan.htm and US_Energy_Plan.xls

                        National Debt, 1945 to Present

                        Population and Racial Groups, 2000 - 2003

                        S&P 500 Index, 1980 to Present

                        Single-Mother Families and Ethnicity

                        Stock Indexes, Crashes and Recoveries

                        USstats.htm

                       

Supplemental Data and Comments:

                        A Brief History of Islam and the West

                        Is Space the Final Frontier?

                        Population and Arable Land on Earth

                        Is Farming Possible on our Moon, Mars, or Venus?

                        Solar energy, photosynthesis, and synfuels

                        Suggested Readings  

                        Timeline of Non-Political History

                        US War Casualties 1775 to date

                        Fossil Fuel Reserves by Country

                        Lifetime of World Oil Reserves

                        World Energy Consumption 1980 to Date

                        World Food

 

Email: pickettjm@msn.com