ZPGJames

Data for major cultures CIA cultures.htm

HELP BALANCE ENERGY USE AND POPULATION TO RAISE, OR MAINTAIN, GDP PER CAPITA.

History should be based on data, not political and economic noise.

ZPGJames.com Home Page

Since 9/29/2003

Recent Boom-Bust cycles: SP500.htm and SP500.xlsx including log plots and a cosine oscillation model

Revised: Balancing the US Federal budget: US_Income_linear.htm and US_Income_linear.xls a look at Ryan’s idea

Revised using OECD data online 8/8/12: USA data as of July 4, 2012: USA_CIA_Data_070412.htm

Revised: Income in the US is highly concentrated compared to Europe and reduces productivity: Income_Distribution.htm

and Income_Distribution.xlsx Also: US Household Income Income_Households_US.htm

New: The US will get little sympathy, but a lot of competition. GDP/capita and growth rates: UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm

and UN_China_Germany_Growth.htm

New: Graphics of energy options: US_Energy_Plan.htm, US_Energy_Supply_EIA_2012.htm, US_Alternative_Energy.htm,

World_Energy_Plan.htm, Dynamics.htm

Periodic updates:

1. The G20 countries can change the world: G20.htm

2. US Stock Indexes, Crashes and Recoveries: INDEXES.htm

3. US S&P 500 Index, 1980 to Present: SP500.htm

4. US Income and Expenses:

a. Eight-year transition: US_Income_linear.htm and US_Income_linear.xls

b. Congress needs to make a plan to balance the budget and stick with it.

c. Estimated current and future tax expenses per person in 2010 dollars

and federal and state funding: US_2100.htm and US_2100.xls

d. Effects of energy and health costs 2007 vs. 2020: Energy_Health.htm

e. Government spending in the US versus other major countries from

The Economist, 3/31/12, page 31: 201208.png

f. US GDP summary for 2009 to 2011: BEA_1.1.5.htm

5. US Price of Oil: Oil.htm

6. US Price of Electricity: electricity_EIA.htm

7. US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm

8. Migration from poor to rich countries: CIA migration.htm, G20.htm, and

Dev_Index.htm See items 19 and Policy Suggestions below.

9. How Congress can make good decisions: Decisions.htm

10. Replace Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid with one limited pool per person:

US_Benefit_Pool.htm and US_Benefit_Pool.xls

11. Jobs, education, birth control, and automation: US_jobs.htm

12. China data inspired by reading: Why the West Rules-For Now by Ian Morris (2010):

a. UN_Compare.htm and China_model.htm Compare to:US_model.htm

b. Equal GDP’s per capita would eliminate most trade problems.

c. GDP’s could be higher, if we can generate more non-fossil fuel energy.

d. Coal reserves and use by China and the US: coal.htm

e. The US is the paranoid party: The Economist, 4/7/11, page 28: 201210.png

13. Energy from Food and Development of Countries: food_energy.htm

14. Population reductions versus non-fossil fuel energy needed by 2100:

Cultural_Options.htm and Cultural_Options.xls

I hope these analyses and comments lead to more realistic evaluations of human population growth, energy limitations, and space exploration so future generations can enjoy a productive life on Earth.

James M. Pickett, September 25, 2007.

Definition of Overpopulation:

I define overpopulation to mean having a less than desirable GDP/capita and being willing to reduce the birth rate to help increase the GDP/capita even if the population is stable.

This means that a country may need to decrease its population to raise its GDP/capita. If a country is trying to expand into another country (by force or by migration) or is so unstable that it is endangering others, then countries may act to defend themselves. Stabilizing overpopulated countries may require pressure from more developed countries. For example, foreign aid might be granted only if the birth rate is significantly reduced. Access to welfare, including food, is not a right, it is a privilege earned by responsible reproduction and hard work.

Major results and conclusions:

1. A brief introduction: Summary.htm

2. World population growth from 1 AD to 2600 and Options: World Population Growth.htm

3. Birth rates are decreasing, but not fast enough: UN Birth rates.htm

4. GDP/capita increases rapidly as birth rates decrease: CIA births.htm

5. A high GDP/capita requires a lot of energy/capita: CIA energy.htm

6. Market incentives are important: CIA cultures.htm, CIA gini.htm, CIA ages.htm

7. What would heaven on Earth look like? Heaven.htm, Cultural_Options.htm, Modelout.htm

8. Limits of Democracy: Limits of Demo.htm

9. Population model output: African.htm, African 4.htm, Buddhist.htm, Christian.htm,

Hindu.htm, Latin Am.htm, Muslim.htm, Muslim2.htm, Orthodox.htm, USA.htm,

EU27.htm, World.htm, World2.htm

10. Summary of Options for Africa: Africa_Options.htm

11. To download a copy of my population model, open and save: ZPGModel.xls

12. Five good indexes of development:

a. Summary data and development index for the G20: G20.htm and G20.xls

b. Using Purchasing Power Parity GDP’s: Dev_Index.htm and Dev_Index.xls

c. Using Exchange Rate GDP’s: Dev_Index2.htm and Dev_Index2.xls

d. For the states in the USA: US_States.htm and US_States.xls

e. For 29 countries with populations less than 15 million: Small_Countries.htm

f. Regression summary for Development Index data: Index_stats.htm

13. An Energy Plan for the World: World_Energy_Plan.htm and World_Energy_Plan.xls

14. An Energy Plan for the US: US_Energy_Plan.htm and US_Energy_Plan.xls

15. Projected prices:

a. Price of oil: Oil.htm

b. Price of electricity: electricity_EIA.htm

16. Energy reserves and options:

a. Fossil Fuel Reserves by Country: Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm

b. Data for ten large oil fields and future oil: Oil_Fields.htm

c. US Oil and Natural Gas and the Yellowstone hotspot: US Oil and Gas.htm

d. Long term energy options: photosynthesis.htm

17. Space, The Final Frontier? Space.htm

18. A climate proposal: Rich countries (high GDP/capita and low birth rates) agree to develop and help finance technologies to begin reducing global warming by 2050. Rich and poor countries (low GDP/capita and high birth rates) agree to reduce birth rates to two per female or less by 2050. If successful, we would stop global warming and be approaching a stable human population by 2050. Middle income, low birth rate countries (e.g. China and Russia) could aid these important negotiations. Such projects should be funded as a percent of GDP: Climate.htm and Climate.xls

19. Should rich countries increase their birth rates?

a. Population densities are already high per unit of arable land: CIA Land.htm

b. Food energy is a small percentage of total energy used: food_energy.htm

c. The ratio (workers/dependents) is higher than in most poor countries: CIA ages.htm

d. Children are expensive: CIA female.htm

e. Energy (and water) are going to cost more: Oil.htm

f. Economists tend to favor the wealthy and cheaper labor. See item 4 at: Population.htm

g. The answer is: No! But migration should be regulated: CIA migration.htm

Policy suggestions:

Bipartisan Study Commissions, Email.jpg

Immigration into the US.htm

Responsible reproduction.htm